LaLiga Hypermotion 2026/27 salary cap: club-by-club breakdown and promotion odds based purely on spending power

What's up, legends? They say money doesn't score goals, but it helps. A lot. LaLiga released in September the official salary limits for the 2026/27 season, meaning the maximum each club can spend on players and coaching staff based on their accounts. Today we're going to break it down club by club and, while we're at it, do some maths: what are each team's odds of promotion if money was all that mattered?

💶 The 2026/27 salary limits, club by club

Official LaLiga limits published in September 2026, following the summer transfer window closure. The "previous" column shows the figure each club had at the end of last season in their respective division. Positions based on matchday 7 standings.

🔍 What the numbers tell us

Girona and Mallorca play in a different league. Between them they account for almost €70m, over a quarter of the entire category's money. They're the Real Madrid and Barcelona of Segunda, though well down from their last La Liga season (Girona dropping from €76.95m to €35.08m and Mallorca from €60.96m to €34.69m).

Oviedo, third in spending yet eighth in the table. With €20.76m (down from €46.81m in La Liga), they're practically tied with Leganés (€20.77m) in the second tier. Behind them, Las Palmas (€17.14m) and Castellón (€15.43m), who with less than half of Girona's budget are the unbeaten leaders.

Real Sporting, seventh with €13.34 million. Up over two million from last season (€11.10m), and only behind the three La Liga dropouts, Leganés, Las Palmas and Castellón. Currently sitting 12th: with this budget, the minimum target is the playoff—and right now we're outside it.

The miracles at the bottom. Almería have the lowest limit in the entire category (€3.97m, down from €10.50m) and they're third with 15 points. Eibar, with €9.45m, are second and just rattled off six straight wins. And at the other end, Valladolid have dropped from €12.16m to €4.34m and Cádiz from €7.06m to €4.67m: that explains a lot.

🎲 Promotion odds if money was everything

Now for the fun bit. We ran 20,000 complete season simulations, match by match using the official fixture list, where each team's strength depends purely on their salary limit. Then we counted how many times each one goes up: the top two automatic promotion spots and the playoff winner between 3rd and 6th. The "pure" column simulates the league from scratch; the "with current points" one starts from the matchday 7 table and simulates the remaining 35 matches.

Elopi23's model. Each match is simulated with Poisson goals and every team's strength comes purely from their salary cap, with a small home advantage boost. Reserve teams, with no cap of their own, run on the league's median salary cap and can't get promoted because their parent club is in the top flight. Total sum: 300 % (three go up).

How do you read this? If Segunda was just about money, Girona and Mallorca would go up seven times out of ten, Oviedo and Leganés once out of three, and Sporting, a 12.8 %: roughly once every eight seasons. With the points we've already racked up, it drops to 9.2 %.

What about Castellón or Eibar? That's where football's magic shows up. By money alone, Castellón would have an 18.8 % promotion chance; with the 19 points they've got already, the number jumps to 49.6 %. Eibar goes from 4.8 % to 15 %. And Almería, third with the league's smallest salary cap, is the perfect example of why this model stays just a game: salary caps aren't what clubs actually spend, and they don't measure coaching quality, academy strength, loan deals, or transfer savvy.

So, who do you reckon goes up? Does money matter more or football? Drop it in the comments. Come on Sporting! 🔴⚪

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